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What do analysts say about the Polish rental real estate market?

17 of August '23
w skrócie
  1. The report "Rental 2030: Directions for the Development of Rental Housing in Poland" analyzes three scenarios for future changes.
  2. The focus is on the declining pressure to own one's own apartment, the rise of institutional renting and the role of local governments in housing policy.
  3. Despite differing opinions, it seems that the rental sector will evolve towards greater professionalization and cooperation between the public and private sectors.
  4. The future of this market will depend on political and market choices in the coming years.

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    The rental market is still an open topic of discussion in Poland. What will the future of this sector look like, how will public and private investors find their way in it? This is what experts interviewed by analysts and analysts tried to determine.

    As part of our #ReportThursday series, we present documents, reports and guides on architecture, cities and local government that are certainly worth publicizing and promoting. This week we take a look at the report „Rental 2030: Directions for the development of rental housing in Poland,” produced by the ThinkCo think tank team in cooperation with Otodom, PFR Real Estate and

    The report is available on the ThinkCo website.

    Therental market in Poland can hardly be called developed. Eurostat indicates that only about 13% of the Polish population used renting, while the percentage of renters in the European Union is 31%. This is a significant difference, due to several factors, such as the reprivatization of housing in the 1990s, the political culture, and the unprofessionalized housing market.

    powody wynajmowania mieszkań

    reasons why polanders rent apartments

    © ThinkCo

    Tenants, however, have been increasing over the years, making the rental sector extremely fragmented. The market is underdeveloped and fragmented, concentrated in large cities and still unstable. What direction is it heading in?

    As part of an analysis conducted by ThinkCo, 75 real estate professionals commented in a survey on the future of renting in Poland. The survey was presented using a probability index, where +100 means full probability and -100 full improbability.

    This showed the changes they thought were most likely to occur in the rental sector. ThinkCo created three scenarios based on the data. How does the future look?

    tak według ekspertów ma ewoluować najem w Polsce

    This is how the experts expect leasing to evolve in Poland

    © ThinkCo

    popularization of renting

    The first scenario assumes a decrease in pressure to own an apartment, in favor of the popularization of renting. This is expected to result from generational changes, greater mobility or professionalization of the market.

    The quality of the environment is becoming an important factor in choosing an apartment for rent. In addition to a decrease in pressure to own, multi-year rental contracts, not particularly popular today, will become common. Smaller cities are expected to gain, due to lower costs to quality. Coliving will also become more widespread. Instead, experts are skeptical about the spread of rental homes in rural and suburban areas. They also see no future for the spread of unfurnished rental housing, which is popular in Germany, among other countries.

    zestawienie z pierwszego scenariusza

    summary from the first scenario

    © ThinkCo

    most rent because they have to

    The second scenario assumes that the increase in credit installments also means an increase in the prevalence of renting, more out of compulsion than desire, although, as experts point out, the number of people renting by choice will also increase. The role of individual investors will not diminish, but the role of institutional renting will increase significantly.

    The development of PRS (Private Rented Sector) rentals will increase, including among developers who will choose this form. This will not change Poles' approach to investing in rental housing. Senior housing for rent will be popularized, in response to demographic issues. Although ownership will be rarer, the share of medium- and large-sized, better-priced apartments will increase in the rental offer.

    In this scenario, experts point out that the market in small cities is developing less intensively.

    zestawienie z drugiego scenariusza

    summary from the second scenario

    © ThinkCo

    local government active – government passive

    The third, and final, scenario assumes that local governments will be more active, but the government will continue to be passive in the face of changes that support construction, as well as the rental sector. REITs, or real estate investment trusts within companies, will be popularized. Short-term rentals will be regulated. The state and local governments will support people in the rent gap. Local governments will be important players stimulating local housing policy.

    They are skeptical about the introduction of amixed-use obligation for new housing developments (mixed tensure), as well as changes regarding policies toward promoting ownership. They are also skeptical about the liberalization of the protection of tenants' rights and the operation of laws regulating rents.

    zestawienie z trzeciego scenariusza

    summary from the third scenario

    © ThinkCo

    ambitious or average?

    Experts' opinions are divided, although a certain vision emerges from the results of the survey — strong entry into the rental sector by large companies and developers, greater professionalization of the sector, and the need for the public sector to act, even without major changes in rental laws.

    What will be the future of rental? There is no consensus on this topic. Everything depends on the policies adopted by the next parliamentary term, as well as the activity of private companies.

    The report is available on the ThinkCo website.

    Raport „Najem 2030. Kierunki rozwoju najmu mieszkań w Polsce”

    The report „Rental 2030: Directions for the development of rental housing in Poland”.

    © ThinkCo

    compiled by Wiktor Bochenek

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