What is the situation in the housing market in Poland since the beginning of this year? Are we seeing falling demand and a rolling real estate crisis? What is the current situation in Poland's largest cities? That's what experts from JLL Poland have examined.
JLL Poland has released the report "Residential market in Poland. Q1 2023," which was partially discussed at a recent conference organized by the Home Builders Association. The report discusses the issues of demand and supply, sales of apartments in the primary market and the problem of optimism in the real estate market. What is the current situation in the housing market?
sales growth
Experts from JLL point out that in the six largest cities in Poland in the first quarter of this year, developers sold as much as 34% more apartments than in the last quarter of the previous year. This translated not only into better results relative to the last quarter, but also relative to the result a year ago.
The market has been most strongly influenced by housing subsidy issues, which have been vociferously discussed by the ruling camp and some opposition forces - not only by buyers looking for apartments for their own needs, but also by those treating them as an investment element.
Political announcements do not translate into an increase in supply on the market. The smallest number of new units appeared in the Tri-City and Krakow, although not much more were introduced in Wroclaw or Lodz. In most markets, average quarterly apartment prices have reached record levels - reaching as much as sixteen or seventeen thousand per square meter in Warsaw or Cracow.
Price aggregation on the primary market in Poland's largest cities
© JLL Poland
optimistic forecasts
JLL Polska analysts also assess the attitude of real estate market participants. As the authors point out, it is positive. This has been influenced by rather non-obvious factors. The mild winter allowed Poles to get through the cold period without major heating and energy problems. There is also the issue of falling inflation, which, if it continues, could possibly go below ten percent by the end of the year.
Optimism has been brought to the market, however, primarily by the announcement of a law that will allow buyers of their first homes to take out a loan with a low interest rate approaching three percent. Analysts expect the process of increasing supply to accelerate, as well as raising the prices of the most sought-after apartments.
statistics from the report
© JLL Poland
The full report is available on JLL Polska's website.
